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you have not heard of it because it only lasted from 1960-1975. authoritarian growth miracles do not last. they won for a while -- they go on for a while. we keep thinking this chinese boom will last for a while. this boom will last for ever. it is already slowing down. why does it give us some insight? let me take a drink of water before i give you this profound insight.
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it was never an authoritarian growth miracle begin with. we've got the effect of economic freedom was not on the change in, but on the level of per capital income that countries attain. free countries are rich countries. dish with economic repression are poor countries. north america verses africa. that implies when you see it rapid growth, one thing that could be going on in china is you have changes predicting changes. you have a change in freedom and that change predicts a change in income.
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what happened in china? you had one of the worst totalitarian systems and there was an increase in freedom. you had some increase in political freedom. chinese people today are much more free, even politically. this release the energy of the chinese people and you have this rapid economic growth. that is the story line that i will give you as to why the chinese miracle and not last. >> go ahead.
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>> i thought that what by me extra time. i don't know how many of you heard the story. "the onion' declared north korea's leader the sexiest man alive. the, as party newspaper did not raise this was a satire and reprinted it straight up. this is a little bit funny. there is a litle bit of an insight into the current leadership. they would not allow this kind of satirical irreverent towards their leader.
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they do not recognize satire when they see it. it may seem absurd you can mistake an "onion" story for a real start but they did. a fundamental flaw is you have no feedback. that's what is missing in china. we now know that thanks to "the onion." >> i will have dambisa moyo join us. another author of several best-selling books.
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this year she published "winner takes all." she has been named one of the most influential people of the world by "time" magazine. [applause] >> good morning. o ye of little faith. we are on the wrong side of the aid issue. i don't want to get swayed immediately. i'm here to give my prediction for 2013. the emerging of the frontier markets. they are the ones that are not in the bricks. much of eastern europe and parts of asia.
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why do i love this story? capital, labor, productivity. let's take a look at what is happening in the western countries. you know the story. in terms of labor, there are issues. we know the story about the aging population. also in terms of quality. they measure the performance in mathematics, science, and reading and rank countries every three years. and then productivity. productivity is supposed to
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account for about 60% of white one country grows and another does not. how efficient we are in using capital labor and rule of law, how open the business environment is. we know what is happening there. look at the frame work and applied it to the emerging markets. i am incredibly bullish for 2013 and the years ahead. places like africa -- compared to over 100% in places like greece and italy. these countries are not suffering from the leveraging problem.
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60% of the emerging world is under the age of 25. over the to% in places like uganda. there are issues with youth employment. we are talking about 30% increases. opportunity for economic growth. things like political improvement in terms of democracy and freedoms. i have to have this debate with you, bill. countries like rwanda have been
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ranked number 1 by the world bank as the most improved. then the closed by telling you this. 90% of the world's population live in the emerging markets. they want to see improvements in their livelihoods. their success is no longer hits to the global economy as a whole. there will be issues. i do think it will be bumpy. a number of countries are pivoting towards china. thank you very much. >> we have to talk about china.
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you cite this story about capital labor and productivity. you could say that about the bricks. they were slowed dramatically. >> there is a clear delineation from the advanced emerging countries and these emerging countries. it is how integrated the bricks are and how much exposure that have. it is dependent on the united states and europe. let me pick my own continent, africa. less than 2% of foreign investments. i think there will be a lot of domestic demand.
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look at how things are trading in the local markets rather than being into credit to the west. >> it doesn't depend on commodity prices? >> it is not entirely the case. today there are about 1000 stocks that trade in africa. if people look at africa, they are missing out on one of the biggest trades that is occurring. at the performance of the markets in nigeria and kenya. they are among the best performers driven by the banks in terms of economic development. story has been replicated in peru and sri lanka.
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>> we know that china is slowing. i do not think it is a hard landing. they are managing themselves out now. china is the biggest buyer of these raw commodities. >> let's focus on china. they are the biggest and most important of the emerging markets. i 8 cents determinism in your view -- i sense determinism in your view. to break up the domestic monopoly.
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do you think they cannot do that? >> i think you cannot do it unless there is political reform. you need the feedback to make the correct reforms. they have been able to get away with it for a long time. it is running out now and cannot golan without -- it cannot go on without honest feedback. >> we do have some feedback. you do have the capacity for some kind -- it is less black- and-white -- what do you think you need? >> you have the chinese twitter.
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consider a twitter curtain. russia, china, iran. you don't allow the international spread of ideas that you need to keep growth going. >> every time i'm in china -- you're much more upbeat about china. do you think the growth miracle will continue? >> around 50 million chinese leave every year and virtually all of them go back. the data coming from mckinsey
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around education. the student visas. you get it one year after period to work in the united states. many% had back immediately after they get their degrees from here. you might say that is anecdotal. let's think about the united states. this is something i heard last week. stephen breyer -- i will recommend you get his book. "making democracy work." the united states survived over a century without having the universal suffrage in the way that we live today.
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the u.s. constitution was written in 1787. it was clearly are ticketed -- it was clearly articulated. it took the united states until 1956 before you had universal suffrage and a fairness in this country. it was impossible to build institutions and to have sustainable growth that has propelled the world to new levels of income levels and so on without having a democratic society in the way that we know it today. i think we need more patience. they are having discussions in china around this. the question is about
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implementation. they say, we get it. we know we need democracy. how do we implement democracy? a lot of work has been done. they're having some elections and we need to be more supportive. >> let's talk about the u.s. >> this is a question about emerging markets. >> the u.s. example is very relevant. we're having a long-range discussion. you never have a perfect democracy. there is some evidence we do not have a perfect democracy.
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you have an ideal that was set in 776 all men are created equal. that idea makes it possible to have this increase in freedom. white males are equal but not women and blacks. that bill will standard has progressively eroded over time. more mr. cain could appeal to that idea -- martin luther king could appeal to that ideal. the real double standard now is between the rich countries and the poor countries. all the poor countries will be condemned to not have this positive change in freedom.
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>> can i just pushed back with another brick, india? they are doing pretty well. huge democracy. many parallels with the u.s. look at what happened to indian growth. huge excitement. double-digit growth. growth has completely stalled. it is now 5%. a huge number of supply-side problems. there is a lot of things that everyone knows it needs to get done. one is a democracy. is perhaps this analysis too determinstic?
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>> we do not decide on global warming on whether today is a warm day or not. we are talking about 11 predictions. -- we are talking about long-term predictions. the long one prognosis is much better than china's. democracy is much more than a majority vote elections. there is massive corruption and vote buying. all the stuff is the stuff you have to transition out of to realize york democratic potential. >> let's open this up or if you have more specific questions about 2013.
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>> with regard to liberty in china, what is your prediction whether the party will win the income net? in poland, the fact won over the party. >> it is hard to predict when the breakthrough will happen. i'm hoping it'll happen in china. so many chinese intellectuals and scientists and economists are going back to china and there will be part of the vanguard that brings back the ideals that they have seen in other societies back to china. >> there was another question. the lady in the front row.
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that is a good question. if singapore is the exception to your view of the world. >> tiewan. >> growth is about changes and a response to changes in freedom. singapore had a remarkable positive change and economic freedom during the modern era when it opened up in a massive way to world trade. not so much on political.
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singapore has slowed down from the glory days by several percentage points over the last couple of decades. i think singapore will have to it politically liberalize. >> is in the slowdown partly because it has become richer? >> you could turn that around and say part of the reason autocracies grow fast is because there are poor. >> there is a lady right there. let's go for that one. taking the microphone away. [indiscernible] >> hi. i'm interested in political
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reform in china. is it the same as the western democracies system? >> another one for you. >> nobody has to imitate any other country. it's not about the exact institutions that other countries use. that will be hard to deal with. the principles are about the power -- the checks on the government to do bad things. there are many ways to protect the individual against the power of the government. it doesn't have to be an exact imitation. >> can you comment on the countries in africa? some are democracies and some
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are not. d.c. any difference based on their political distance -- the see any difference based on their political distance? >> i do not think the political infrastructure is a prerequisite for economic growth. you do not necessarily have to have a democracy in place. the freedom house has done a lot of work. there is enough evidence to show if you have the right workings of an economy -- what you want is to drive economic growth first so you can create the middle class that can hold the government responsible.
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it is futile to have people voting -- it is absurd to have democratic principles but they are irrelevant where you cannot hold government accountable. let me pick up on something that bill said. this is an important point. there's a schism between develop markets and emerging nations. it is clear why we're having this discussion now. 1940, the definition of a local rights was the ability to hold your government accountable and press freedom. most of the emerging markets --
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the ability to deliver education and health care. that gap between these schools of thought has never converged. this is where the issue lies. i believe we will get the political reforms. you need to make sure they evolves in a way that is organic. it needs to evolve organically for the local environment so that it sticks and that it is sustainable. bear in mind we have the united states, the largest economy. private capitalism as their economic paradigm. you have china with the second- biggest economy with no democracy.
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these countries have the same income and equality right now. only marginally worse. we can talk about trajectory. policymakers have to make a decision which model do we pick. we loved democracy. think the jury is still allowed. >> thank you. i think we have time for one more question. six rows back. there is an uproar. we'll have two more questions. >> my original question was to professor easterly.
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there is a basis for generalizing of the declaration of independence to the world. it does include so-called positive breaks as well. i would like to hear your comments. >> i want to get two other questions and have you both answer them. the lady here four rows back. >> i was in west africa a couple of years ago. there was a strong sentiment to stop the aid. my question is around integration. there are people doing
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important things like clinton and goldman sachs. how does the economy developed that energy for innovation? >> very briefly because we are out of time. you take the u.n. >> the u.n. agencies to not respect the declaration. the world bank -- the last outgoing president never once used the word "democracy" during his term. i know this firsthand. i questioned his spokesman and he agreed with me.
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the world bank was not even endorsing the u.n. declaration of human rights. there are giving aid to places like ethiopia. as was documented by human rights watch. the aid was used to start political opponents. the world bank itself is not recognizing the basic human rights. >> very briefly. >> not a single country that has to achieve long-term economic growth by relying on aid. not one. so that notion is rubbish. two yearago, all i heard was these countries cannot have it capital markets.
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two months ago, $750 million, and securitized. it came through. it was more aggressively priced than italy, spain, or portugal. that is the weight you hold governments accountable -- that is the way you hold governments accountable. these marginal interventions are not going to create economic growth. we know how to create jobs. we know trade is better than aid. get rid of your policy and get rid of those problems and then we can talk about economic
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growth. >> thank you very much. [applause] >> this weekend we're joined by senate agricultural committee chairman debbie stabenow. she talks about the farm bill, the filibuster, and other legislation in the senate. join us sunday at 10:00 a.m. eastern here on c-span. >> the big discussion i remember was, what is richard nixon going to do. >> i remember being scared to death. this is like a time bomb. anderson gets it going, it is a disaster for all of us. >> he said to me, the president's council has brought a list of 50 names of people. he wants a full field
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investigation of them. >> it was shortly after the speech when the chief of staff called me. he said, we forgot one thing. he said, we forgot a resignation letter. you need to write it. >> i thought the best way was not for me as a historian. it was for mthe players to tell the story themselves. i thought the best way to do zero a videostart in video history program,ram thaa videol and use portions of that story in the museum to let visitors understand the complexity of this constitutional drama. >> and former head of the
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mexican presidential library and museum details the history project, sunday at 8:00 on q&a. >> next, a discussion on the health-care industry. this is just under half an hour. >> thank you. i have the pleasure of talking about health care in 2013. 2013 will be a big year for health care. there is enormous amount of exciting research on health and personalized medicine. at the same time, the affordable care act is continuing its torturous implementation with 2014 as the big year when medicaid will be expanded, people will be required to get insurance, and the continuing question of how you expand access to health care, improve health care, lower-cost is going to heat up in the next year if
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that is possible. the tenor of the debate in the last few years. we have esther dyson, the chairman of edventure holdings. she is also trained as an astronaut and says going into space is much easier than health reform. please welcome ester. [applause] >> good morning. i am going to talk about making predictions for three markets concerning health. they are the markets for health care that you are familiar with. they are for ad health and for health care itself. the health-care market is drugs, farma, doctors, nurses.
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things are changing but they will change slowly, slowly turning towards keeping people healthy rather than treating them when they are sick. drug companies will continue to line because they cannot charge enough for their drugs -- are going to continue to whine because they cannot charge enough for their drugs. they have to the people who are sick as opposed to just the healthy ones that they pick. they will figure out to some extent how to align their incentives with that. the government is going to not pay, so certain companies are helping institutions to change their processes. that will continue. i think overall it is pretty good. i do not expect any dramatic
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changes. companies are beginning to understand that they need to promote healthy food, so they need -- they will use fuel additives in the same old food. now you have fruit bars made with yogurt, or you have candy with fiber. it is really hard because there is a huge market for bad food, including not just the bad food itself but advertising. everyone around you eating something full of sugar and salt that really tastes great. exciting and dramatic changes based on two fundamental things that have been moving along for a while but are coming together -- you will see announcements over the next few days in 2013.
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it is first of all the rise of user-generated data, whether it is things like fuel or allows me to count how many steps i have done, blood pressure -- the big holy grail which may or may not get close to being realized in 2013 is a non-in basis monitor for internal bio markers like blood sugar. there is another chemical component to your blood. there is excitement now about the bacteria in your debt. people are going to start collecting that stuff on themselves, sharing it, posting it, etc. the second half of this all happening is on-line networks. you heard about social media. this is social health data.
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it will be used in two ways. people will ink heard other people to engage in healthy behavior, avoid the product of the second market i mentioned, or at least keep them in moderation. then also we will be generating a lot of data so we can do what amounts to clinical trials out in the open. or maybe things that are not cost effective because nobody is selling them, like oat bran. the number of classes of water you drink. we will generate data that will allow us to quantify the effect of our behavior on our health. >> thank you. [applause] i think your last point is a good segue for our next speaker, daniel kraft, the executive director of futuremed.
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please welcome daniel. >> so it is a fast-moving world, and i think the world of 2013 is -- shift the first slide up, please. i was recently back in massachusetts general hospital where i did my residency in the 90's. sort of define it in all buckets -- not that much had changed. the opportunity in 2013 is to start getting out of the budgets we have to find ourselves in, and start thinking differently. part of that big shift with obamacare, the incentives that we practice with evidence-based medicine, technology is allowing us to watch our health.
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there is pressure to take health care out of the hospital and icu increasingly into our home and our own bodies. a lot of that has been enabled through a lot of fast moving technologies in an exponential age. there are other disruptive technologies not just competing, but coming together. in genomics, i think -- this year there were a few thousand. we will start to learn what to do with some of that data as we put it together. it is sequencing, our podium, the fact that you can get your gut sequenced and analyzed. all that will come together. competition is getting faster through faster computing. one prediction will be that we
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will change all procedures such as the old angiogram. for example, heart flow will have a 30-second span. you can analyze blood vessels and personalize therapy for the individual. that convergence of clout, data, it imaging coming -- of cloud, data, imaging. obviously the phone has been a dramatic change and has impacted health care. now in the last few months there has been a $35 -- we will start to give these a way to our patients, especially as we start to see new dashboards on our devices.
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we are seeing data not just in our regular phones but our increasing ability to use them as smart platforms. last week, the iphone case, i was approved to do and e.g. and send it to my doctor. that is one example. it is not just diagnostics. the watch i get next year will measure my heart rate and my motion. we can have a point-of-care diagnostics. if i can visit your physician on my smart phone, it will evolve quickly in 2013. finally, artificial intelligence will become more common in health care because we
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cannot keep up. we need to understand as clinicians what is happening and to integrate all this data to the point where we want to have some kind of onstar for our bodies. tricorders today -- here is an early prototype of a tricorder that was released. the fact that i put this tricorder device on my forehead and stream this information live through my phone -- eventually to my clinician -- will be very powerful. these will be selling in 2013. the last couple of examples would be connected health, social media, social connectivity, leveraging our behavior.
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i downloaded an app the other day the opposite way, this will be me if i gained 50 pounds. >> oh my god. >> there are brain computers that are emerging that will control our environment. you can focus your attention and learn what you are focused on. another prediction is the stem cell role. that will merge with other technologies. this has been covered by "the economist." we will see more of that in the year ahead. i teach at a university.
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we are bringing new people into health care who are traditionally not in health care. that is really powerful because new programs, designers come in. in 2013 we will see design thinking, just like we do in aviation. i have been a pilot and a flight surgeon for the last two decades. we see information being put in the operating room and those are being amplified. all this data -- i'm sorry, simulation, just like a pilot in the airline, is becoming normal in medical schools. increasingly changing how we do health care. the data is now classified, just like we will have that for our own health care. just the right amount of information, not too much that
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we will be overwhelmed. one thing that will impact that is the world of google glass. we will see that applied to health care in a variety of ways. i can see my patients in ways that will be a particularly interesting tool in health care ahead, whether you are trying to lose weight and see your breakfast and be informed as well. the last example would be the example of radar. if we can see our cars, are self-driving apps -- what if we could use health care data, understand where the road blocks are? that is the opportunity through big data and big analytics. to know where the influenza is. according to your own personal app. leveraging social networks to know who not to shake and twist that day based on what is integrated.
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we will move from tools that are episodic and reactive to tools that are proactive. i think that this, for example, in my world in oncology, we are starting to be a person were every tumor is sequenced. pulling all these things together, i think will help us reinvent health care in 2013. in many ways, the future is here, just not evenly distributed. thanks a lot. [applause] >> thank you for that presentation. the reality of the health-care sector is often somewhat different. it is not may be as fast moving as some others. it has increased by -- health
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care continues to climb each year. there is data showing that electronic health records actually in many cases raise costs, lower productivity. there is a gap between the vision and the reality. what is keeping the idea that both of you describe from taking hold of the health-care sector in a bigger way? >> i will answer that, but first i want to argue about the productivity. in terms of we are not measuring productivity right away. that is part of the problem. imagine we are measuring how many cat scans did you do versus how many lives did you improve. that is the real problem. the incentives are going in the wrong direction, and we can measure the productivity of what we are counting. we are counting the wrong stuff.
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that is the part of obamacare, accountable care, all these other things we are trying to change. labor productivity and output of a cat scan, $20 vs -- if you made the cat scan cost more, you would increase productivity. it is obvious we are measuring the wrong things. we are starting to change that, number one. number two, we are measuring too closely -- in other words, we are looking for instant gratification. what you spend now on a home health-care aide who looks very unproductive, making $12 an hour, she does not seem to do much. but those old people are happier
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and healthier. those things don't get counted. there is a huge amount of productivity to be gained not by paying doctors more, but by bringing in more low-paid people who will make the people they serve healthier. >> we now have a massive primary care physician shortage. using some smart connective devices can give a nurse practitioner experience in connectivity and background of the whole panel. you can start to measure that. by the next year, the overall hospital mortality went down 20%. it might have been 30 kids' lives saved.
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the new generation of digital natives will be practicing differently. often they want the old fashioned clinical trial, when to show that it works. you cannot do the old fashioned political trials. you will do online patient- engaged trials in real time. some of the incentives are starting to shift again. more value-based care physicians can prescribe view an app that can dramatically lower costs. big cares like medicare are trying to lower costs. >> technology to change, workflow on the provider's side -- doctors and nurses are working to pay for costs. if you pull all these gadgets
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out of your jacket, and you continue to have more out of each pocket. it is a very different kind of consumer to invest in all of these, and using them or not, how applicable is this to a complete health measurement? >> let me take that on. yes, daniel and i are kind of weird. we are part of the quantified self movement. we get a lot of freebies, but we also pay for stuff. a lot of the people -- so much nicer. you have leading edge people who do this and we will start generating data. it is clear we are motivated, picky. employers will start saying, we give people free coffee,
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subsidized lunches. we have day care, we have a basketball court. why don't we try this? maybe this will make our employees healthier. employers actually benefit from you being healthy. it is not just you avoiding the cost, with benefits. they will try to get a indication, have the is that play baseball. they will generate data that shows this stuff really works. more people will do it because their interest in social norms will change. second is health. it is cancelling for pre diabetics. 10 groups of 10 people -- the really cool thing is a lot of the people not only will lose weight but they want to be prominent counselors. so we are solving unemployment.
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>> ester mentions the quantified self movement. these are consumer devices track heart rate and motion today, would soon a cardiologists will be able to track a heart patient. the patient will have a dashboard, may have lower insurance premiums. we do not want to let health- care technology to get in the way. you can start to enable the patient-doctor relationship. we do not want to see the same doctor with the same number two pencil form for patients. i can have a more focused visit and maybe some telemedicine follow up. >> we have a limited amount of time, so one last question before we take questions from the audience.
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it is increasingly important not just about what you can buy at your corner store, also devices that work with a stream of information about your health condition. how do you see that debate evolving? who should have that did and why don't patients have it now? >> you as an individual should own your own data. my friend has an implantable defibrillator, and the company that makes it will not give him his own data. he is fighting for it. there have been prizes for providing data for gold mine, and i think with hippa, we can hopefully find that gold to connectivity. >> you own your own data, and then you need to decide whether
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you give it to someone. in passing, there was a congressman talking about genetics data, which in some states and certainly many countries individuals cannot get access to. women are finding this data and taking out their own ovaries, which is completely ridiculous, but the point is there is still a paternalism in the medical profession and in the congress that things that we cannot handle it. >> questions from the audience? >> this sounds all great, all new and cool, but if we do not even have essential health benefits and a population that is aging, what is the reality of actually covering any of this? do you have any information on how to get hearing aids covered? >> a great question. who pays?
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>> i do not know the details of the hearing aids, but everything we are talking about is actually going to cost less and bring more health in the long run. i know that sounds like a congressman speaking. >> hearing aids, they're not willing to cover it. it sounds crazy for an aging population. >> with hearing aids, they will be much healthier and they will cost less. >> daniel, do you have any thoughts on how to go with reimbursement? >> companies like at that, to their credit, are buying these and putting them together. many people stay connected and
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use simple apps for this. they are recognizing tools for getting cheaper hearing aids for vision and things like that. the trick is, who pays for it. hopefully some of these technologies are getting cheaper, like these cheap tablets that can augment costs. >> further questions? there is one. >> i am a nurse in emergency medicine. i agree with ms. dyson. i have seen children and up with vascular tumors in their head because people stop using technology. i have seen medicare and multiple sclerosis patients in tears because they are admitted within 30 days and the new obamacare medicare rules do not allow admissions within 30 days.
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when i take a patient from an outside practitioner for admission to the hospital, they have already decided that the patient will be admitted. they send them through the emergency room to be admitted again through us to the hospital. that costs extra money, and the other redundancy that occurs, they do not send them in with their studies, already done the lab work. >> what is the question, we have limited time. >> i think we are not measuring the right factors. i do think we will have to look at other factors in the future. i welcome either party. >> there is equivalency like yelp, for raiding a restaurant. there are rating functions -- for rating a restaurant. there are reading functions. for clinicians back in the
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emergency room, they will be rewarded for keeping patients with good blood pressure, glucose levels. the kaiser, v.a., they are all different. >> my prediction for 2013 is we will have to get better constituencies so that we can understand the difference between the results of a doctor -- the change made in health versus someone who got healthy patients. >> last question. yes? >> you said the patient owns the data. that sounds like metaphysics. when the state department systematically loses hundreds of thousands of classified secret documents, the patient
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protecting his data is a fantasy. >> yes, he cannot protect it, but he owns it. yes, the world is imperfect. the fundamental -- just like what was being said about democracy, the basic principle is that we should be able to control it. the world is not perfect. >> what happens now when we are all sequenced at birth? what happens now when my pacemaker is hacked? but that should not stop us from leveraging and owning that data. we should be mindful of it as we go. >> so we have visions of hope and disaster. [laughter] thank you to both of our
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panelists. [applause] >> tomorrow on "washington journal," the 113th congress of how president obama will cover in the year ahead. -- and how president obama will govern in the year ahead. how current members of congress are paid. the purpose of congressional service. our guest is daniel shumlin, with the sunlight foundation. -- daniel schuman, with the sunlight foundation. 7:00 a.m. eastern here on c- span. >> student cam video entries with your message to the president are now due. by friday, january 18. there's $50,000 in total prizes. for more details, go to
5:00 pm >> the future of energy policy and u.s. independence. this is half an hour. >> our next session is on energy in 2013. we have three panelists. marvin odum, fred krupp and christine todd whitman. marvin odum, president of shell oil company. [applause] >> good to see everyone here. thank you for having us. where is energy demand going?
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i will use part of my time to do that. this is a story that is probably familiar to everyone in the room. the population from 7 billion today to 9 billion in the middle of the century, potentially doubling energy demand. i will tell you the one phrase that caught me. that kind of growth is the equivalent of creating a new city of 1 million people every week for the next 30 years. when you think about the energy consumed by a city of 1 million people, imagine that. the question becomes, how will we supply that level of energy demand around the world? the prediction of where energy is going is an enormous increase.
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we worked into a lot of interaction with other companies around the intersection between food, water, and energy. these are very connected. trying to sort out how these connected elements have a positive impact over the coming decades. a couple other quick points. you can look at what is happening in north america. you can call it an energy revolution. i use the word revolution intently. it has an amazing impact.
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you hear the iea talking about self sufficiency. it is changing the dynamic. has impacts on geopolitics, the choices companies are making, and the choices the countries are making. if you brought in from north america, one of the big questions is, will that revolution we have seen in north america be replicated in other parts of the world? one of the first big questions is around china. china is exploring. we are helping them explore. that has enormous impact on where the world goes. i will cycle back down to grenoble's. -- of renewables. this is setting up for a conversation here. everything you will hear me say does fit into the hall of the above energy strategy. we think that is what we need. if things go very well,
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grenoble's could supply 30% of -- renewables could supply 30% of the world's energy demand by the end of the century. i will stop there. [applause] >> a quick follow up on that. the 30%, it is an enormous growth rate. which renewals do you see in particular having that sort of potential? wind, solar? >> you double energy demand in the world. it takes everything. wind is part of that.
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maybe solar. there is optimism. hydrogen may be on the table. all of these are imported. -- are important. they all need additional technology applied to them. our focus right now, when it comes to the idea of why we would push renewable, our focus is around storage and biofuels, particular types. and we have a wind business. it is not growing very fast. >> i hope we will come back to this. let's move on to our next prediction.
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>> thank you. [applause] in 2013, i predict this country will finally begin a long over the -- long overdue conversation about climate change. that will lead them put in place common-sense rules. half hurricane sandy was not caused by climate change but it was made worse by it. the surge in new york was higher because the oceans are higher. the winds were speedier because the oceans are warmer. we have got to attack power plants and reduce the carbon pollution from them. it not only causes climate change, but also asthma and cancer.
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we also have to attack fossil fuel subsidies. but we have got to level the playing field so clean energy has a chance to compete. we must finally modernize our electric grid, which is incredibly antiquated. we saw a few places were able to become islands of power and keep their lights on while other places had to evacuate patients. there are more antiquated policies we need to change.
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if you have solar panels on your house, not only should you be able to feed them in the great, but you should be able to use them to keep the lights on. all sorts of power production should be facilitated by the rules in all of our states. this will be the year when we begin to get the policies in place to do that. [applause] >> you mentioned sandy a couple of times. what sort of impact does an event like that have on your members and the interest and the engagement in the sorts of issues you are involved in?
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>> i do not think i can overstate how much it galvanizes people. i think people saw an opening to talk about these rigid this issue that was swept under the rug by politicians and others. neither the president or romney talked about climate change during the election. people began to talk about the issue. mayor bloomberg endorses the president in part on climate change. the storm, the prolonged drought affecting our nation's crops, they do not change everything. we have not won the battle. they do open up a conversation from which we can begin to make the changes we desperately need to make. >> we will come back to issues around that.
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let's hear the last set of predictions from the governor, who was the head of epa under george w. bush. also, the 50th governor of the state of new jersey. he has more powers in the state than any other government. it is a very important position. [applause] >> thank you. making predictions about 2013 is a dicey proposition. the chances of getting anything right are getting more difficult. i will say that you have a department of energy calling for a 22% in power demand.
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that is yesterday. making sure there are decisions. what do i see for the future? we're going to see an increased discussion on climate change. it will be driven by the private sector. the state and local governments have been the laboratories of democracy. you will see projects and new regulatory schemes coming through from the state and local level. look at what gov. christie is going to have to face. we're going to have to face in jersey on the shore. it will drive the ability to start reducing our emissions. that will get us to climb change. we have seen an unwillingness.
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what we're going to look at this point to be a mix. it is an all of the above strategy. it is frustrating for many americans. if we do this one thing everything will be ok. there is no such one thing for industry. -- for energy. it has to be a part of an overall understanding of how climate that into that. it fits into our fiscal health. you're going to see more emphasis on renewable. you're gone to see more emphasis on nuclear power. they just issued their first. this is going to take and help us move along. you are going to locate those. if you are looking for based power, that is. nuclear will be part of that discussion. we need to talk about this.
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because of the pressure utilities will have their having to pay for hurricane sandy in the destruction. they will create the kind of climate that will allow congress to act. those would be my projections. [applause] >> i would like to pick up on what he said about new jersey. new jersey not the 2013 i am sure you would be monitoring that very closely. what can the state do so sore line. so chris declined to be a huge line. it is our second-largest industry. it is a longer the jersey shore. -- it is laregely along the
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jersey shore. it will not be back where it was. my hope is this opportunity we can do in a sustainable way. hi, the governor will control that, as it was. did the governor have copy costs to plan? -- the lieutenant governor has costs plans within her view. between the two of them my hope is that we understand that why do we not cool those communities. we are not going to be able to build in the same way. we're not going to continue to rebuild. we will see more of these storms. >> we have enormous territory to cover. one place to start is the amazing revolution. it is through unconventional gas and oil. hong the governor would have the biggest oil producers of a saudi arabia in rusher.
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-- and russia. what are the implications of this d.c. energy dependence by the united misstates in the very near future? whether it is a right thing to do or whether they choose to move to self sufficiency is completely different. one of the things i would like to pretend that is in 2012 the u.s. would actually develop a u.s. policy. some of this will develop this natural gas so and these unconventional things. >> a year relaxed about this whole a certain sum of the industry happening so fast.
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in the other part of the world there is the misgiving about this. >> relax is not the word i would have chosen. chris has become an extraordinarily contentious issue. one of the reasons it has been contentious is because they're in packs. too often up until now many companies have tonight there are any impacts. the communities see their water contaminated not necessarily buy tractors but by spills on the surface. they see their water getting contaminated. i visited in pennsylvania 30 minutes out of pittsburgh as part of president obama appointed seven of us to chart a safe path forward.
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i had a woman who said she was forced to abandon her family farm because of the noxious emissions from the neighboring wells. her son in order to continue going to school was living with a neighbor. she was living out of her car. no one should be forced to trade their health for good energy. we're starting to see states began to put the rules and place to protect communities and protect public health. that is critical to the involvement in this issue. we are going to frak a lot of shale. we have got to get tough rules in place. the last thing i would say on
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this is that there is another issue that is very serious. that is the global issue of these fugitive emissions from the wells. we have over 3.5 emissions that would be worse for the claimants. shale and several other companies are joining with us to go out and measure what they are. i not only wanted thing shoving willing to cooperate and getting to the science. in colorado just repeatedly now
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shell has been there calling for stronger regulations of its own industry, agreeing with how to go forward in a way that really is notorious. i want to thank you for what they're doing on this topic. [applause] >> e mentioned the mix of energy. is there a danger that the extraordinary growth creates a sense of abundance and they no longer need to worry about renewable oils. >> it is certainly having an impact. it has slowed down. there's something like 17 nuclear reactors being considered just to keep us at
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20's term. that has backed off. the thing we have to worry about is putting all of our eggs in one basket. we have been here where natural gas was a very low cost. then we saw the prices by. it is not where you want to over and guess. -- over invest. as we look at the issue of climate change we need to look at all of those other forms of power that can give us the ability that we would never be energy independent. we certainly are a lot less dependent on countries that do not like us. it will have an impact on our international policy and what we do in the middle east. it is a grave concern. right now because and natural gas is having an impact on the
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decision makers of where you put your money and how fast you develop. i think they have been on this path before to the degree they understand that it will be a mix. most of them to invest in other forms of power. >> we will not have time. >> not to disagree, it is a skeptic of resources and claims about how big they are. i think they are different than what we have seen ever before. if we do this the right way, it is a new world from what we have seen. >> i have been a bit biased toward this side of the room.
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do you feel like the private sector to -- could respond well to record their focus on cleaner forms of energy production. is this something like a carbon protection plan. what would that be like? >> there are others who are more directly involved within ibm. clearly the utilities are going a demand and a need asking them to reduce their carbon footprint. they're seen this as a good marketing tool and as a way to distinguish themselves from others. they can see that there will be some advantage to making these kinds of investments as they move forward.
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i think there is a very good sign. you will see more attention to those things. that is what they're starting to look at. they have been influenced by the climate change we have been seen. >> hi. i write about risk-management and insurance. climate change is a really important topic. due to the drought in big storms, it affects the ability to offer affordable coverage. we have been speaking to a lot of regulators who are growing that climate change is something we need to put at a national agenda.
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for an article i was speaking to the executive of a wind turbine manufacturing company. they had just lost half of their workforce. we really do need to think about switching to alton utilities in the state of the company's is not very strong. do need to put the agenda for workforce are doing to develop strong energy company's first? >> from a private sector simply
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taking advantage of the opportunity right in front of us which is using mechanisms to dry a change in the energy mix. in my mind a delete there a cap and trade system. even if it took some form as a carbon tax there are other ways to get there. you get the full weight of all of that drive and investment technology and so forth. it is more important than taking what feels like more of a one off. >> we have a little time in the back. >> thank you. shell is driving the push into the arctic. can you talk about some of the environment lease sustainable things you are doing there?
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>> it is means you have to do the development part right. you have often been of service of how did you have to be conservative and how they use energy. the drive behind it is a belief that the world will need this resource. this is in the arctic. in such a short time that is all i can tell you. it is about the scrutiny about whether or not we are doing it the right way.
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>> i have been north of the arctic circle of a couple of times. it is a very fragile and precious place. we have to be extremely careful there. it does not break up as fast but it spills. i would also say those of us to think a lot about climate change is pretty easy to be depressed. it is pretty gloom and doomy. it is cutting on weight faster than the scientists who work for me of the woman. capitalism accounts for this external costs. it is what is driving this. it is what the economists call externalities.
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>> do you think we can have a carbon tax in america? >> i would like to see a price linked to a cap on carbon that guarantees that we have reductions. the trick is not what the prices. we have to get a system in place that mandates construction. when we tried capitalism only put this in place so that solar and wind power and geothermal have a level playing field watch what happens. it is implementing a carbon system. we are moving in more and more places to a place where we do more.
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the governor has called for where we use capitalism, get the incentives right. that makes me hopeful. this can give as a clean planet. >> i would echo what they say. the economic drivers are there. i think it will happen at the state level. it'll be the state's back dried it. multinational companies want to have three genes in place. it makes it difficult for companies to do business across country lines. they're subject to penalties by not meeting some of the requirement of other states. it is a very difficult position. i do not see that much appetit
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